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	Fox News Pads Bush Poll Numbers Or-- How The Fair and Balanced Channel Strikes A Blow Against Godless Liberal Mathematics In a recent article published by Public Opinion Watch on its web site dated June 30, Ruy Teixeira, joint fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation, compares the poll results and polling techniques of Gallup and Fox News. The article is entitled “Gallup vs. Fox News”. Not surprisingly Teixeira finds a significant divergence in polls commissioned by Fox and those done by Gallup. And, would you believe it? The Fox polls show Bush’s numbers to be significantly higher than Gallup’s. In general the most recent Gallup poll, released June 24, reported much good news for Kerry and sagging or chronically disappointing numbers for Bush in several crucial categories. The Bush overall approval rating was down 1 point, to 48 percent compared to Gallup's last poll. His rating on Iraq was up 1 point, to 42 percent, but his rating on terrorism had fallen 2 points, to 54 percent. In two areas the poll showed a remarkable turnaround: In the first, a majority of Americans (54 percent to 41 percent) now say the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, a complete turnaround from just three weeks ago when they said (58 percent to 41 percent) that sending troops was not a mistake. In the second turnaround, Americans now say the war in Iraq has not made us safer from terrorism (55 percent to 37 percent). Three weeks ago 56 percent to 33 percent said yes, they thought the war had made us safer. Bush’s biggest increase was his bounce in how respondents rated him on the economy (47 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable). This was an increase of 6 points over the last poll. The best part of Teixeira’s article compares the Gallup poll to one conducted by a company working for Fox News focusing on voter preferences in the Bush-Kerry match-up. Gallup’s poll has Bush ahead by 8 points in solid red states (those he won by 6 or more points in 2000). Kerry leads by 14 points, however, in the solid blue states (those Gore won by 6 points or more in 2000). In the purple states (those decided by less than 6 points in 2000), Kerry shows a 9 point lead. Furthermore, Kerry wins independents by 10 points nationwide and runs away with moderates by 24 points. That’s the Gallup picture. The Fox poll—and this is where things get weird—was conducted at the same time as the Gallup, and shows results that are, in Teixeira’s words “wildly different”. The Fox poll has Bush ahead by a whopping 20 points in the solid red states, Kerry ahead by only 3 points in the solid blue states, and Kerry ahead by 3 points in the purple states. As Teixeira puts it: “Huh?!? Kerry ahead by only 3 points in the solid blue states—a margin no larger than in the battleground states? Was Fox really polling the same country? You've gotta wonder. The survey dates of the two polls are virtually identical, we're talking about the same universe (registered voters) and the same matchup—and yet the results are starkly different.” Teixeira makes no bones about which organization he believes, and goes on to explain why he routinely discounts Fox News polls, which are “invariably and significantly pro-Bush”. So how does Fox get such different results, assuming they don’t just make them up? Teixera suggests maybe Fox weights its data by party ID. If you think for whatever reason your sample has too many Democrats, you weight the sample in the favor of Republicans. Why anybody interested in obtaining an objective result would do such a thing, is another question. Knowing Fox News, objectivity may not be an overbearing concern. Positive poll numbers, after all, have a certain propaganda value that cannot be ignored. What I’d like to know though is this: When George W. Bush and Karl Rove get together to plan campaign strategy, do they use Gallup polls or Fox News polls? To read the entire article by Ruy Teixeira on the Public Opinion Watch web site click here: http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=105682 UP